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Monday, 23-Apr-2012 09:04 Email | Share | Bookmark
The 600356 paper company directed the issuance will be

Notes: when I write down this title ,I know ,this is not I can answer the question .This is only for the purpose of casting a brick to attract jade. Due to discuss the need ,must relate to specific industries and enterprises ,all discussion does not constitute any form of investment advice.
A cyclical industry ,why be concerned with in two ,the current company ?A cyclical industry and company valuation problems in three ,http://adidasjeremyscottit.com,how to give a cyclical industry and the valuation of the company ?Four ,looking for a revaluation of the opportunity ,why be concerned with periodic industry with the company ?A simple answer is :A stock market is lack of high growth stocks ( refers to shares of &quot &quot ;growth .
I tend to define high growth stocks :to two times in the GDP growth rate ,continuous compounding of the enterprise for more than five years .The huge capital market charm ,usually manifested mainly in the high-growth companies .
But unfortunately, in the A stock market microstructure level, due to the high growth groups usually only the performance for stock and report profits in the limited within two or three years of the pseudo &quot ;growth in &quot ;since 2003 .
From deflation to inflation of the economic cycle of a fragment ,enterprise management The best performance of the majority belongs to the manufacturing industry ,adidas Jeremy Scott Wings 2,resource industry cyclical industries ,to achieve continuous annual accounting profits sustained ,steady ,high growth ,most of them are the traditional industries, such as ,part of China with capacity and cost advantages of manufacturing industry ,public utilities ,and the recent trend of very attract sb.
in the Chinese medicine industry plate .From A share market value investment reality, cyclical industry investment analysis ,has its necessity. At the same time ,We operate a variety of ethnic musical instruments and accessories,iron and steel ,nonferrous metals ,crude oil and coal mining ,petrochemical ,electronics components ,agricultural products ,shipping ,.
.. A stock market has a large number of cyclical industry company ,worth looking forward to investment opportunities numerous. Two ,current cyclical industry and company valuation problems in the past two years has been carefully read several research reports.
A feeling is: current research institutions in a cyclical industry ,there are some problems in the valuation tendency :1) in the industry rise period ,overly optimistic ;and in April experienced after macroscopical adjusting control ,also appears (relative to its several months before ) overly cautious ;2) for the performance of the company forecast is too close to the commodity price ,http://adidasjeremyscottde.com/,At the end of each commodity price adjustment for valuation of the amendment ,the valuation is expected and the change of commodity prices as frequently .
I think ,should be what is the commodity price short-term fluctuations ,which is the periodic trends, otherwise ,valuation report as a game of chance ,become the agency of a game reason .
I highly doubt that certain industry researcher ,www.adidasjeremyscottde.com,in them after graduation, or in ( doctoral level ) independent began to study ,and not through his research on industry a complete cycle, in their own industry cyclical understanding ,is also a bookish rather than personal experience in ;in their professional advantages, a lack of adequate experience support .
After a year in industry after the ups and downs ,researchers usually have three types of responses :1) frequency correction :follow the commodity price and constantly revised short-term expectations ,no longer keen to do more than three years of long-term forecast, and to the long-term predictive value to set aside a certain margin of safety ;2) insist green hill to be not loosened :although in making &quot &quot ;overweight ;investment advice after the share price over the index fell ,but this is likely the market excessive reaction We should cling to one ,the decline in holdings of &quot ;&quot ;investment rating unchanged ;3) but to turn :April before &quot &quot ,July ;overweight ;most uncomfortable when downgraded to neutral &quot ;&quot ;,is now whether stock or commodity prices have substantially rise again, how to do? Can turn but turn to .
Especially some award winning major suit analyst ,not frequent turning ,otherwise ,would be tantamount to take their own occupation reputation and job are you kidding ,angry fund managers in the following report chasing Shadie ,inevitably will be market fool after cavity anger someone to vent.
Recent international commodity market price fluctuations too intense ,objectively create and increase the valuation difficulties ,whether investors or researcher ,this is a learning and growing process ,moderate swing should belong to normal ,not demand perfection .
But this way ,researchers become investors in commodity ,enterprise besides third observation and tracking of object I want to ,only followed the one or two years of the study ,can we truly find yourself trust researcher.
Three ,how to give a cyclical industry and the valuation of the company ?A valuation valuation before 1 ) .Target company to choose a very real problem is ,although the industry may be periodic ,but ,a lot of enterprises life cycle is so short ,if do not recombine ,when them from this peak down, not live until the next cycle of boom died ;or ,they lack the proper keep up with the trend of the industry of basic skills, although in this industry boom period live pretty scenery ,but by the next industry boom period ,they can only share part of profit margins, to once again become the industry lead.
Long cycle of the industry and the short-lived enterprises ,a cyclical industry valuation process encountered in the first the problem. I want ,deserve serious research enterprise ,should at least let investors expected to ,it can at least go and share three industry cycle .
For short life cycle of the enterprise ,is not a cyclical industry sustainable development measure and the valuation .2) cyclical industry a cycle factors including the dollar ,because of consumption upgrade ,technological progress and other factors caused the decline of the cyclical industry ,because of the international industry transfer in China to produce a partial cycle ,and so on .
B valuation 1 ) Buffett is how to give a cyclical industry valuation ?Since is the value investment ,say Buffett ha have seen the old Palestinian &quot ;for the boom high pay 6 times the earnings of &quot ;representations ,Adidas Wings,but the source still need research.
It is in a book on Buffett to see so a :How to pick stocks like Warren Buffet ,By Timothy Vick Buffett Liu Lei ,how to choose the growth stocks ,China financial and Economic Publishing House ,2002.
3 ,page 138th :&quot ;Benjamin .Graham ( Benjamin Graham ) tells Buffett ,pricing of cyclical companies according to their average profit rate &quot ;&quot ;,must not for a particular year profit pay higher premium .
By calculating the company over the past 7 to 10 years of annual average profit ,you can also on the future of the average profit is a fairly accurate estimates. Graham also suggested that ,ought not to exceed the company average profit of 16 times the price of buying the stock.
&quot ;Graham ,as well as in what macroscopical economy under the background of remarks ,still need further research. However ,Pay close attention to nonferrous metal copper opportunity,I dared to think ,this standard applies only to no expansion of enterprises , also did not consider the aperiodic factors.
2) earnings dynamic price-earnings ratio is still the most intuitive and commonly used evaluation methods and standards. Since it is dynamic ,it contains the expected .Wait until the first quarter of 2005 annual report ,2004 ,we will be surprised to discover ,many iron and steel ,non-ferrous metals such as a cyclical industry the share price of the company, in 04 years of the three quarter was down to only 6 times earnings level.
The problem is ,you agree that this valuation standards ?Will you this price long-term investment ?3) valuation of the international comparison of Shen million institute thinks ,current value of blue-chip internationalization trend ,is the valuation method International Valuation Standards ,not the internationalization.
Valuation method of international law ,and not only means that the EV / EBITDA ,RNAV and a long string of the individual cannot read the English abbreviations .To international market valuation levels measured in A stock valuation of a company, is still the turtles when writing a report of commonly used and persuasive one methods ,such as h ,the international similar valuations, mature market valuation .
But ,if you ignore the different market diversity, can sometimes lead to some beautiful mistake .This ,there is a chance to start. Four ,looking for revaluation value opportunity Our field of vision ,sometimes confined to his home ,is considered China consumption escalation of resource industry demand ,Chinese government demand in short-term inhibition.
But ,as a permanent member of the Security Council qualification ,industrialization is not a developed national patent. When the population of many other developing countries ,such as India ,Brazil ,Egypt ,Indonesia ,if these countries have also seeking to enter the heavily industrialized period ,then ,global resources will take what kind of pressure? The crude price breaks through 50 dollars rise, to a great extent it should be attributed to the international hot money speculation .
But ,when crude oil prices enough to threaten the global economy recovery of high prices ,is not affected by the war in Iraq and the hurricane direct effect ,but the expected macro-economic highly related to iron and steel ,non-ferrous metals such as several varieties are in a 2004 highs ,the Chinese still does not have pair of macroscopical adjusting control one ,do ,these varieties are all mere speculation speculation on strength ?Dollar factors and global resource factors ,has been a must consider the long-term non-periodic factors .
From the investment point of view ,if the city Field of misjudgment of the cyclical industry cyclical peaks and time span, if non periodic interference or change cycle of certain characteristics,Adidas Jeremy Scott Schuhe fried silkworm chrysali, which constitutes the revaluation opportunity.

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